October brings the World Series, Halloween, and the start of the fourth quarter. And while it would be easy to write October off as the last month before the busy holiday season, experienced shippers know that this is actually one of the most action-packed shipping months.
As you read this, the toys and electronics that will be wrapped up under the tree are being transported to store shelves — and they’re far from the only commodities on the road this month.
Now’s the time to pour yourself a hot apple cider (or a pumpkin beer, if that’s more your thing) and consider how freight needs and industry trends change in October.
At Anderson Trucking Service (ATS), we’ve seen a lot of Octobers since our inception in 1955 — so believe us when we say we’re prepared for this month can throw at us!
In this article, we’ll talk through the trends in the shipping industry and what will impact your shipments this month. We’ll cover:
- October spot rates
- How dry van capacity changes in October
- How reefer trailer capacity changes in October
- How open-deck freight changes in October
- Moving oversize freight in October
- What shippers can do to maximize their budget this month
Like a kid into a pile of leaves, let’s jump in!
Spot Rate Quotes in October
Historically, we’ve seen an increase in shippers requesting spot quotes in October. This could be for a variety of reasons: a lull in consumer spending, general uncertainty heading into a presidential election, or plain ol’ shopping around.
Heading into October 2024, FreightWaves reported that spot rates stopped their decline, leveling out to about what was seen during this year’s Blitz Week.
The outlet also noted that the labor strike of East Coast and Gulf Coast dockworkers represented by the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) — which began Oct. 1 and came to a temporary suspension Oct. 3 — may disrupt the market and create momentum for spot rates.
Spot rates are much quicker to react to changes in the market, so a strike-related disruption could rapidly tighten the spread between spot and contract rates.
FreightWaves therefore cautioned its readers not to be surprised by a narrowing of the spread during Q4’s truckload peak season.
While there’s no hard-and-fast rule for when a contract quote or a spot quote is best, it’s worth noting that developing a network of trusted transportation providers gives you a variety of shipping options. This can lead to better pricing than if you request a new spot quote for every shipment.
Even if your business relies primarily on spot quotes, developing a relationship with multiple carriers gives those providers an incentive to consistently give you the most competitive rates.
How Dry Van Capacity Changes in October
Before we dive into the impact of October’s annual trends on dry van capacity, we need to do a quick check-in on the state of consumer spending.
Throughout 2024, consumer spending has remained robust despite the high cost of goods and rising unemployment.
Those consumer dollars have continued the trend toward services over goods, with Deloitte reporting in late Aug. 2024 that the money consumers spend on services has been growing at a much faster pace than for goods, especially durables.
However, the same analysis shows that once price changes are accounted for, consumer purchases of durable goods themselves outpace services. This dichotomy can be explained by the different rates at which prices for goods and services change.
The bottom line? While consumer spending on goods may be slower in Q4 than the same period in years past, consumers are still spending.
So, how does consumer spending impact dry van shipping this October?
While FreightWaves reported that the dry van market has seen freight volume levels retreat from recent highs, trailer capacity remains readily available.
That’s good news for retailers, as October kicks off Q4, which is also the start of holiday peak season. And there’s no time of year more associated with “consumer spending on goods” than the holidays!
Goods will be flowing steadily into stores all throughout the fall — and most of those goods are traveling on a dry van. So, even though capacity is currently up, dry van trailers will be in scarcer and scarcer supply.
That brings us to the one wild card in the dry van market: the impact of the ILA dockworkers' strike. The timing of the strike in coincidence with both retail peak season and Hurricane Helene was unlucky, to say the least.
While the strike came to a temporary suspension after three days, you may still experience delays in shipments (or the outright inability to move goods stuck at affected ports) of commodities like fruit, canned goods, and alcohol, at least in the short-term.
When these goods are finally free to move, shippers will have two challenges: Capacity and congestion. Their trucks, once secured, will be heading into severely backed-up, traffic-dense ports.
You know what that means: Anticipate delays — and anticipate paying a bit more for dry van capacity from now through the end of the year.
Your specific costs will vary — it’s possible you’ll luck out and see little rate fluctuation at all! — but it’s always wise to look to demand trends and plan accordingly.
How Reefer Trailer Availability Changes in October
October marks the end of the busy Midwest harvest season and the start of harvest activity on the West Coast from California to states in the Pacific Northwest.
As such, refrigerated trucks are moving out of the Midwest region and into states like Washington, Oregon, and Idaho, where apples, onions, squash, and beets are maturing before traveling to tables across the country.
Now, here’s the rub: Because these sturdy crops don’t require constant refrigeration, fewer reefers are needed in October in general.
But!
The demand is still raised enough that, if you need to get a refrigerated truck into one of these late-harvesting areas, you’ll likely pay less to do so. (Thanks, supply and demand!)
And while October may call to mind visions of pumpkins, gourds, and apples, there’s one other holiday-specific crop you’ll need to keep in mind soon: the mighty Christmas tree.
A Note About Christmas Tree Season
Right now, fir trees are hitting their final growth spurt before they become the festive centerpieces of living rooms across the country.
According to the National Christmas Tree Association, there are 25-30 million fresh Christmas trees sold in the U.S. annually. How do all these trees get to lots across the country? You guessed it: reefer trucks.
Christmas trees are grown in all 50 states, but the majority take root in Oregon, North Carolina, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Washington. You may see a shortage of reefer trailers in these states as trees are trucked to their final homes.
As you might expect, Christmas trees have a very short shipping season — so it follows that any shortages caused by their movement will be short-lived. Still, it’s something to be aware of if you’re sourcing capacity in or around the most affected states.
How Open-Deck Freight Changes in October
Now that it’s officially fall, the days get shorter and the temperatures start to cool, especially in the northern parts of the country.
For those of us north of the Mason-Dixon and east of the Rocky Mountains, October is significantly colder than September. While there aren’t usually major snow events this month (though if you’re from Minnesota like ATS is, you either lived through the Great Halloween Blizzard of 1991 or have heard about it ad nauseam from those who did), frost is a realistic possibility.
If the freight you normally ship open-deck may be sensitive to frost, consider using a dry van or Conestoga trailer for greater protection.
And if the temperatures really take an unexpected plunge, you could consider using a reefer trailer as a frost protection measure. This method is ideal for freight that can be (or needs to be) cold, but not that cold.
October also marks the last days of construction season for the northern states. Expect a steady decrease in the movement of lumber, equipment, and other construction materials this month.
In the sunnier south, standard flatbed, step-deck and lowboy shipping is expected to remain much the same. Hurricane season is also coming to an end (albeit kicking and screaming), so there should be few changes to these markets in October.
Much like our bird population, flatbed drivers head south for the winter. At least, a fair number of them do: they’re motivated to stay where there’s more open-deck freight moving there in these later months.
Depending on your location and your needs, it may be somewhat more difficult to find a flatbed for your freight during this time — unless your freight will take drivers to Florida, Texas, Georgia, or South Carolina!
Moving Oversize Freight in October
All across the U.S., October ushers in about an hour of lost daylight. In many jurisdictions, permitted freight can travel only during daylight hours — so build in extra travel time for any over-dimensional (OD) freight moving this month.
Speaking of permits: Indigenous Peoples’ Day is October 14, which means permitting offices in most areas will be closed in observance of the holiday.
If your OD shipment will be moving through multiple states, plan ahead to secure your permits so an office closure doesn’t stop your haul.
Oh, and here’s a fun fact: Did you know that football season has a direct impact on freight movements in October? OD freight is restricted when traveling through major college football cities during the season.
The huge influx of fans and tailgaters on gameday causes more traffic congestion than normal, which means oversize (OS) freight can’t travel through town safely.
If you were planning on moving a load through a college football town on game day, check local restrictions and work with your transportation provider to find a different route.
We all know that proactive planning is critical in transportation, but that’s especially true when it comes to heavy haul freight.
As October is generally considered the last month in which one can safely count on mild weather in the northern part of the country — and the start of dwindling daylight hours until spring — expect planning ahead to become even more crucial in the months to come.
How to Make The Most Of Your Budget This Month
As Q4 begins and budgets tighten, it's time to get the most out of your shipping dollars. Here are our tips on how to work with your carrier or broker for the best rates this October.
Plan Ahead
If your business follows seasonal trends, such as apples or holiday wrapping paper, use this foresight to plan shipments early. Giving your carrier 48-72 hours' lead time will help you secure better rates; last-minute bookings usually cost more.
Explore Alternative Trailer Options
When certain trailer types (like dry vans) are in high demand, consider alternatives. Can a flatbed handle your freight? Would a hot-shot trailer be more economical than a full truckload?
When you provide accurate, thorough freight specifications, your transportation provider can use that information to more quickly find a vehicle that meets your needs — and the most readily-available or budget-friendly trailer type may not be the one you usually ship on. Flexibility (and creativity!) can unlock savings.
Be Flexible with Timing
And speaking of flexibility: Offering wider windows for pick-up and delivery improves truck availability and can lower costs. It also helps drivers operate safely and efficiently, especially as weather and daylight hours change.
By working closely with your broker or carrier and staying adaptable, you can navigate Q4's challenges, strengthen your partnership, and make the most of your budget.
Conquer Q4’s Freight Challenges in October and Beyond
October is a dynamic month for the trucking industry, marked by shifting market conditions, holiday prep, and changing weather.
Capacity will become tighter this month, particularly for dry van and reefer trailer types, and will remain so through the end of the year.
Truck capacity (and rates) could be further complicated by unpredictable events like the possible labor strike at dozens of ports, but October will need to unfold further before any solid insights can be gleaned.
One thing you can rely on, though? By planning ahead, considering alternative trailer types, and staying flexible with timing, you can make smarter shipping decisions that keep costs in check. As always, strong communication with your carrier or broker is key to navigating these seasonal changes smoothly.
October is just the beginning of what promises to be a busy and unpredictable fourth quarter — remember that little election coming up in November?
For more insight into what’s ahead, check out our article: How Does an Election Year Impact the Freight Market? It will help you understand some of the market behaviors leading up to (and immediately following) Nov. 5, so you can plan your own spending accordingly.
